NWS Forecast Discussion
Oct 8, 2026 12:50 PM CDT • NWS MEG
FXUS64 KMEG 081750
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1250 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
- Warm and dry conditions will persist through Friday with high
temperatures spanning the mid 80s to low 90s.
- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias are expected to impact much of
the Mid-South on Saturday with primary impacts including wind
gusts up to 40 mph and periods of heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch
has been issued for many areas east of the Mississippi River.
- Rainfall from Isaias will exit the area by early Sunday. The
weather pattern will turn dry and warm by the middle of next
week.
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
Another warm and dry October day is on display with clear skies
and temperatures spanning the 80s as a 586dam ridge continues to
dominate the region. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions
will remain the weather story here in the Mid-South through
tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Come late
tomorrow evening and into early Saturday, eyes turn to remnants
of Hurricane Isaias. After making landfall along the Gulf Coast
states, it will begin to take a northern/northwestern trek,
impacting northeastern Mississippi early Saturday.
The primary impacts with Isaias' remnants will be gusty winds and
periods of heavy rainfall. Forecast PWATs begin to surge to
around 1.7", nearing the 95th percentile for this time of year,
by early Saturday. One thing to note, much of the Mid-South is
currently under severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought with very dry
soils as little to no precipitation has fallen in quite some
time. With forecast amounts ranging between 1" and 3", with
locally higher amounts up to 4", a Flood Watch has been issued
for Saturday through sunrise Sunday for most of our counties east
of the Mississippi River. Latest NBM probabilities have a 30-50%
chance of rainfall amounts through Sunday exceeding 3" over
northern Mississippi. Some models, such as the RRFS, have an
overall dry solution with us here in the Mid-South being dry
slotted on the west side of Isaias' remnants.
As far as winds go, we're expecting sustained winds up to 25 mph
with gusts up to 40 mph associated with this tropical system. A
Wind Advisory will likely be warranted for some portions of the
Mid-South Saturday, but will be issued in subsequent forecast
packages. The exact evolution, intensity, and track of Hurricane
Isaias remains uncertain at this time due to a few surface fronts
(one currently extending across the Ohio River Valley and the
other extending from central Florida through the northern Gulf)
and the upper-level flow pattern. What we do know at this time
is, Saturday will be wet and windy. As things currently stand, we
are not expecting severe weather here in the Mid-South with
Isaias' current track. If its remnants meander further west,
further into our area, brief spin up tornadoes could become an
issue. In any case, tornado potential remains almost non-
mentionable at this time and if tornadoes do come into the story
Saturday, they will be short-lived and best chances will exist
east of the Mississippi River.
Isaias will move fairly quickly across our area by noon Sunday.
Rain chances will diminish leaving a relatively pleasant and
overall dry day with highs in the 70s and lower 80s. Monday
through the remainder of the 7 day period, we're looking dry and
warm as upper-level ridging looks to broaden over the Lower
Mississippi Valley by mid-week. Above normal temperatures head
back into the forecast beginning Monday with highs in the 80s to
lower 90s once again.
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
VFR conditions will continue throughout the current TAF period
with high pressure influences continuing. Winds will remain
generally around to below 5 kts. Northeasterly winds will begin
to shift to easterly near the end of the current TAF period,
picking up to around 8 kts.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
Warm and dry conditions will persist through Friday, with minimum
relative humidity values in the 25 to 35 percent range.
Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany
gusty winds on Saturday, as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias move
through. Generally 1 to 3 inches of rainfall are expected, with
greatest amounts over far northeast Mississippi and near the
Tennessee River. Dry and warm conditions will return on Sunday
afternoon and persist into the middle of next week.
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for
TNZ019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA